Open method, verifiable results

Headlines, sources and summaries are available. Collection status describes service activity; it is not a tension index.

From 12 October 2026 at 02:00 UTC to 7 December 2026 at 02:00 UTC. The lexicon, sources and protocol are already sealed. Tone values remain closed until the period ends to prevent adjusting the method after seeing the results.

Stories are grouped automatically using shared headline words. A fixed list of Portuguese–English equivalents (papa and pope, Arábia Saudita and Saudi Arabia) helps join versions in both languages. Grouping may wrongly join or split stories, and some versions in different languages still stay apart. Ranking by newspaper count reflects coverage, not importance or truth.

The «Breaking news» strip is automatic too, with no editors and no AI: it appears when the first headline of a story is at most 3 hours old and the story is already in at least 5 newspapers from at least 4 countries. A story with any sports headline, or any celebrity or video game headline not about politics, is never breaking news. Since 1 November 2026, headlines from Portuguese and Brazilian newspapers also get a second opinion from an AI model that only classifies (Jev, by TypeSafe AI; it writes no text): when it gives at least an 80% probability of sport or celebrities, the headline counts as if the rule had caught it. If several qualify, the one told by the most newspapers is shown; after 3 hours it goes. If none qualifies, nothing is shown (src/historias.js, ultimaHora; src/temas.js, historiaComDesportoOuCelebridade). In the Portugal, Brazil and United States editions the strip is the country's own, always in Portuguese, and counts only that country's newspapers: 4 Portuguese, 3 Brazilian or 4 American newspapers within the same 3 hours, on every page of the edition (src/historias.js, regraUltimaHoraPais).

Since 9 November 2026, the same classification-only model (Jev, by TypeSafe AI; it writes no text and receives only headlines) helps in five more places, always on top of the fixed rules: when the answer is not clear, or Jev fails, the rule applies. 1) Grouping: when the similarity between a headline and a story is close to the threshold (up to 0.2 above or 0.1 below), it is asked whether the two headlines report the same event; at 20% or less they are kept apart, at 90% or more they are joined. 2) United States edition: a US newspaper headline the lists do not recognise counts as American politics at 80% probability or more. 3) Topic: Jev picks one of the site's 13 topics, or none; when most of a story's headlines agree with at least 70% confidence, that is the card's topic. 4) and 5) Defence and Economy: at 80% or more for «is it about defence?» (or «about the economy?») the headline enters the section, and at 20% or less it leaves, whether or not it has words from the list (src/jev-usos.js).

When available, AI summaries use only headlines, with sources for each sentence and model attribution. They can contain errors: check the headlines and original articles. The rules and corrections are in Accuracy and corrections. No language model enters the tone calculation.

Extended coverage displays headlines from other countries under a public rule, without adding those newspapers to the first period's measurement. The map represents the newspaper's country, not necessarily the event's location. Missing sources do not imply an absence of news or tension.

Polls (leaders and parties), the political map layers (regimes, alliances, governments) and the page-view count are separate data: they do not come from the headlines and do not enter the tone measure. Sources and licences are in About.

A SHA-256 fingerprint lets you check whether a file matches its registered version. The public register records seals, amendments and corrections. Daily data seals are available now; the full data needed to recompute them opens after the first period.

Pre-registration preserved on Zenodo (DOI) · Archive by day

• Leaders' approval: approval and disapproval polls come from Wikipedia's tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), the Levada Center's site (Vladimir Putin) and India Today's «Mood of the Nation», via Wikipedia (Narendra Modi). They are read every 3 hours. Each dot belongs to the pollster that ran the poll, as published.
• Party voting intention: from Wikipedia's polling tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), also every 3 hours.
• The 30-day average is calculated by us: on each date, the average of each available pollster's latest poll in the previous 30 days, with equal weight. Approval rings and the home page show the latest value of this average, as of the latest poll, with the number of pollsters; with only one, it equals that poll. Disapproval uses the same polls. The ▲▼ triangles show the rise or fall against a month earlier (or, without an average of at least three pollsters, against that pollster's previous poll). We do not compare countries, and none of this comes from the headlines.
• The events next to the polls come from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). We show what happened, not that it was the cause.
• When a poll is not yet on Wikipedia, or Wikipedia lacks a measure the pollster published (for example, Luís Montenegro's personal approval in Pitagórica's study for CNN Portugal), we read it by hand from the pollster's or commissioning outlet's own publication, with the link, the original file and the publication date. If the pollster only publishes weeks and not the interview days, we say so next to the poll.
• Elections: each election has its own page (for example, /eleicoes/brasil-2026). Results come only from each country's electoral commission (or an identified official reproduction) and, in the United States, from each state's election office, read automatically where the state allows it; never from the news or exit polls. During the count the page says the figures are provisional and shows the time of the bulletin; in the United States, «elected» only once the state has certified the result. Winner projections by the Associated Press and US newsrooms are shown separately, labelled «projection» with their source: a projection is not a result. After an election, the winner's result automatically takes the place of the polls, in gold and as «Votes in the election», until a poll carried out after the election comes out: these are votes, not approval.
• Party symbols come from Wikipedia and Wikimedia Commons. They are the parties' trademarks, shown only to identify them, marked «Source: Wikipedia» and with the author when under a free licence.
• On the map, borders are from Natural Earth (public domain); the «Regimes» layer is the V-Dem and V-Party classification (University of Gothenburg, CC BY-SA 4.0), not an opinion of Veramundi; alliances and governments come from public, sealed lists, with the source of each line.

These pages do not come from the headlines: they are lists prepared by Pedro Cardoso, public and dated, with the source of each line. They give no opinion about anyone.

• Government: the make-up of the current Government, updated by hand when someone takes office or leaves; past governments since 1976, from the English Wikipedia pages on each constitutional government (CC BY-SA 4.0); and the later careers of former ministers, from Wikidata (public domain, CC0) and from a hand-checked list in which each office has a dated public source. Only public and party offices, and posts in companies or institutions reported publicly, are included.
• Form your government: the people you can choose are a closed list (the current Government, people with a page on Veramundi, living former ministers, the «Analysis» commentators, sitting MPs and the sealed list of public figures linked to politics). Putting someone in an imagined government does not mean they would accept. The profile uses the parties' positions in the Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2024, an academic expert survey; it is an estimate, explained on the page. The government you form stays in the page address and in your browser; it is not sent to Veramundi.
• Portuguese Parliament: members, plenary attendance and absences, committees, speeches, debates with the prime minister and votes come only from the Assembleia da República's open data, as published. Parliament publishes votes by parliamentary group: there is no individual vote for each member, and Veramundi does not rank parties or compute «alignments». Members' photographs only appear when they are under a free licence.
• Party spectrum: a descriptive grouping by political family, with each party's sources (manifestos, statutes, Constitutional Court, academic studies). It does not measure distances.
• Analysis: the commentators and analysts on a public list (lexico/vozes-v1.json), each shown only with the role they hold and the source for it. We show the headline of each piece, the start of the description the paper or channel itself publishes, and the link; never the full text or the audio. These are the opinions of whoever signs them, and Veramundi does not endorse them.

The Defence and security page brings together the «Cybersecurity», «Hybrid threats», «Defence and arms» (defence policy, armed forces, NATO, equipment and industry) and «Defence spending» (military budgets, arms purchases and sales, contracts and military aid) topics. Newspaper headlines are included by each topic's fixed words (public list in site/publico/js/temas.js), as with the other topics. Besides the newspapers, we read these sources, only for this section and without measuring tone (list fontes/seguranca-v1.json):

• CNCS — Centro Nacional de Cibersegurança (alertas): Portuguese public authority.
• NCSC — National Cyber Security Centre (Reino Unido): UK public authority.
• CISA — Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (EUA): US public authority.
• EUvsDisinfo (Serviço Europeu de Ação Externa): EU service against disinformation; it is the EU's position.
• The Record: specialist press, owned by the security company Recorded Future.
• BleepingComputer: specialist press.
• SecurityWeek: specialist press.
• The Hacker News: specialist press.
• DFRLab (Atlantic Council): disinformation research lab of a US think tank (Atlantic Council).
• Krebs on Security: independent investigative journalism (Brian Krebs).
• Breaking Defense: specialist defence press.
• Defense News: specialist defence press.
• Defence Industry Europe: specialist defence press.
• Politico Europe (Defesa): specialist defence press.
• NATO — notícias: international organisation (Atlantic Alliance).
• Ministério da Defesa do Reino Unido: UK public authority.
• Comissão Europeia (sala de imprensa): EU institution.
• Defense One: specialist defence press.
• The War Zone: specialist defence press.
• Defence24: specialist defence press.
• European Security & Defence: specialist defence press.
• UK Defence Journal: specialist defence press.
• Naval News: specialist defence press.
• USNI News: specialist press of the U.S. Naval Institute.
• DefesaNet: specialist defence press.
• Poder Naval: specialist defence press.
• Poder Aéreo: specialist defence press.
• Forças Terrestres: specialist defence press.
• Tecnodefesa: specialist defence press.
• Ministério da Defesa do Brasil: Brazilian public authority.
• Marinha do Brasil: Brazilian public authority.
• Exército Brasileiro: Brazilian public authority.
• Força Aérea Brasileira: Brazilian public authority.
• idD Portugal Defence: Portuguese state defence holding; its own press releases.
• Tekever: Portuguese drone company; its own press releases.
• Operacional: specialist defence press.
• Área Militar: specialist defence press.
• EMGFA — Estado-Maior-General das Forças Armadas: Portuguese public authority.
• Ministério da Defesa Nacional: Portuguese public authority.
• Marinha Portuguesa: Portuguese public authority.
• Exército Português: Portuguese public authority.
• Força Aérea Portuguesa: Portuguese public authority.
• IDN — Instituto da Defesa Nacional: Portuguese public authority.

The last eight have no feed that can be read from here: we read their headlines through Google News, filtered by the site's own address. The section also has Portugal, Brazil and United States pages, with only each country's defence news.

From the authorities we show every warning, as «Official warnings»: each is the voice of that authority. From the specialist press, only headlines that name a public target (state, public service, infrastructure, elections) or a state actor are included, and from the defence sources only headlines on defence; product and vulnerability news is left out. Defence company and holding sites (idD Portugal Defence, Tekever) appear separately, as «Industry announcements»: they are interested parties, not press. Who is behind an attack is rarely known for certain: when a story points to a country or a group, it is the source saying so, and Veramundi does not attribute attacks.

The Economy and Markets page brings together three topics, «Markets», «Economy» and «Companies and earnings», each with fixed, public words (site/publico/js/temas.js), and has three pages: The day in the markets, The economy in numbers and Official releases. Besides the newspapers, we read a list of our own, only for this section and without measuring tone (fontes/economia-v1.json): central banks, market regulators, statistics offices, ministries and the IMF, whose releases we show in full; and business newspapers and sites from Portugal, Brazil and the rest of the world, from which we show everything except sport, celebrities and sponsored content. The full list, with the nature of each source, is on the releases page.

The figures are official series that are free to reuse, with the source under each one: the European Central Bank's ECB Data Portal (interest rates, inflation, unemployment and reference exchange rates) and the Central Bank of Brazil's time series system (Selic, PTAX dollar, IPCA and unemployment). We do not show stock market or share prices: they belong to the exchanges and can only be shown with a paid licence.

The section has four editions, each with its own pages: the world, Portugal, Brazil and the United States. In Portugal, Brazil and the United States, only the country's own topics: world stories about the country, and those the country's press reports, grouped by the same rule as the stories, with at least two newspapers. Stories about another country or about foreign markets (the Federal Reserve and Wall Street in Portugal and Brazil; the European Central Bank in Brazil and the United States) that do not mention the country are left out. In Portugal, only stories about Portugal or a Portuguese company or institution appear: the European Central Bank only when the headline is about the country. All of them have their own page, with a summary; those told by newspapers from at least two countries also get a «Balanced view», requested after the home page ones and within the daily limit. The releases are the country's own; so are the figures (in Portugal, with the European Central Bank's rates and the euro; in Brazil, with the euro in reais; in the United States, for now only the euro in dollars); the world edition leaves out Portuguese and Brazilian sources.

Original documents in Portuguese, with version history on GitHub.

• Protocol and hypotheses
• Amendment 1
• Amendment 2
• Sealed lexicon
• Measurement sources
• Extended coverage rule
• Extended coverage sources
• Regional summary instructions
• Story summary instructions
• People, country and topic summary instructions
• Commentator comparison instructions
• Seal and change register
• Daily seals
• Seal verification code